The Alan Note

"The most solid advice for a writer is this, I think: Try to learn to breathe deeply, really to taste food when you eat, and when you sleep really to sleep. Try as much as possible to be wholly alive with all your might, and when you laugh, laugh like hell. And when you get angry, get good and angry. Try to be alive. You will be dead soon enough."

Ernest Hemingway  (via doecile)

(Source: irisblasi, via micahbaldwin)

NFL Predictions 11/4

Last week was 60%…seemingly kind of stuck at this rate.  This week’s predictions.

Bills vs Texans | Winner Texans

Ravens vs Browns | Winner Ravens

Panthers vs Redskins | Winner Redskins

Bears vs Titans | Winner Bears

Broncos vs Bengals | Winner Broncos

Lions vs Jaguars | Winner Lions

Cardinals vs Packers | Winner Packers

Dolphins vs Colts | Winner Dolphins

Vikings vs Seahawks | Winner Seahawks

Buccaneers vs Raiders | Winner Bucaneers

Steelers vs Giants | Winner Steelers

Cowboys vs Falcons | Winner Falcons

Eagles vs Saints | Winner Saints

NFL Predictions 10/28

So last week, I had around a 66% accuracy rate.  I’ve improved on the model a little bit but I have big tweaks coming out next week.  Big enough to include spreads.

So here we go for this week:

adamlaiacano:

Above is an interactive NYC Storm risk map, showing how susceptible each neighborhood is to storm damage.

The map came from the DataKind/NYC-Parks DataDive in September, 2012.

(Source: adamlaiacano)

"Apple, famously, has the same pricing philosophy as Louis Vuitton: it sells premium products at premium prices, and it never discounts. That philosophy has made it an aspirational brand worldwide: you don’t see vendors in China selling fake Google Nexus 7s. Sometimes, as with the iPhone and iPad, the world beats a path to the company’s door in any case. Other times, as in the case of wireless routers or external displays, Apple’s products are so much more expensive than the competition that only the rich Apple faithful tend to buy them. But that uncompromising devotion to the fundamental philosophy is what has made Apple such a powerful global brand."

NFL Predictions 10/21

So last week my NFL model wasn’t too accurate. I’ve been feeding it new and much more data now and am in the process of weighing certain stats over others. Here are this weeks predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings | Winner: Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers | Winner: Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Predictions 10/11

I’ve been doing a lot of predictive analysis and thought I mine as well try my skill at picking each week’s winning NFL teams. I have no idea how successful it’ll be, but if it works well, I’ll start adding point spreads.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee | Winner: Pittsburgh (Blow Out)

Oakland at Atlanta | Winner: Atlanta (Blow Out)

Cincinnati at Cleveland | Winner: Cincinnati

St. Louis at Miami | Winner: St. Louis

Indianapolis at NY Jets | Winner: Indy

Detroit at Philadelphia | Winner: Philadelphia

Kansas City at Tampa Bay | Winner: Tampa

Dallas at Baltimore | Winner: Baltimore

New England at Seattle | Winner: Seattle

Buffalo at Arizona | Winner: Arizona

NY Giants at San Francisco | Winner: San Francisco

Minnesota at Washington | Winner: Minnesota

Green Bay at Houston | Winner: Houston (Blow Out)

Denver at San Diego | Winner: San Diego

The In Between

The biggest challenge facing the planning industry is the lack of attention to the “in between”.

Planners create plans and have tools that allows them to see the arterials, the train tracks, the residential areas, the industrial areas, etc. They know at a very surface level where everything belongs. And they continue to create tools that reinforce this practice.

Planners also know how the citizens (residents) of an area looks like. They all know what a human looks like, an old person, young person, hipster, etc. which is possible thanks to our loud policy wonks who claim to have an innate understanding of demographics, employment figures thru BLS surveys, etc. Even though they go to less than a dozen community meetings a year.

And accordingly urban planners make products that are easily and readily created from these surface level tools. Soulless master plans, asinine long range plans, Hispanic programs in low income areas (I know its racist but it’s sadly true), bike plans that create more conflict with cars, studies that reinforce false stereotypes or out of date laws, etc.

What planners don’t have access too or are empowered to seek is what lies in between. How citizens commute, what they’re eating, who lends money to who, how big ones family is, where kids go to school, what time people wake up.

The dynamics of a community.

The important stuff, the stuff that people live and go thru when they have to deal with the shortcomings of planning. And that’s why most of America is tired and sick of government and the so called experts. Because they get so many of the little things wrong.

So instead of making master plans or long range plans that actually benefit the residents of a community, planners instead continue to use out of date techniques and inadequate tools to create products that create or reinforce the long term problems instead of solving them.

The problem is that most working planners know this, most just don’t do anything about it.

"Consensus is the absence of leadership."

Thinking Outside the Box

Not many people can really think outside the box…so embrace the times and opportunities you have with them.

If you are lucky enough to be one of those out of the box thinkers…congratulations.  Keep on dreaming and talking and writing everything down.

If you are not lucky enough to be one…congratulations on being honest with yourself.

If you are a fake, wannabe, self-claimed out of the box thinker not an out of the box thinker NEVER do the following when collaborating with someone who thinks outside the box:

1. Cut off the person who is talking with an objection of some kind (if you object a lot you’re not thinking outside the box…you’re actually probably scared of the box)
2. Add no value to the conversation by adding some fake out of the box buzz words, or just say anything that you might think to be creative (read a book for the love of god)
3. Try to explain what thinking outside the box is…to the person who actually does think outside the box and has a track record of thinking outside the box. Scratch that even if they don’t have a track record…don’t explain what thinking outside the box…or impose your box onto them (don’t put your box onto other people)
4. Say yes to everything (you can’t be creative unless if you have a spine…and theres a difference between being rude and having a spine)